IBOPE Inteligência Poll: Gingrich Takes Lead in GOP Field, Romney Drops to Third
Both Romney & Gingrich in Dead Heat With Obama
UTICA, NY--Newt Gingrich has soared into the lead of the Republican field for President among primary voters with 32%, followed by Herman Cain at 26% and Mitt Romney at 14%. In theoretical match-ups with Barack Obama among all voters, both Romney and Gingrich are statistically tied with the President.
The IBOPE Inteligência interactive poll conducted from Nov. 15-17 also finds Obamas approval rating holding steady 44%, as is the percentage saying he deserves re-election (40%).
The poll also asked whom Republicans primary voters would choose if the only candidates were Romney and either Gingrich, Cain, Rick Perry or Ron Paul. Both Gingrich and Cain easily defeat Romney, who defeats Perry and Paul.
Republican Candidates (asked only of the partys primary voters)
If the Republican primary for President were held today, for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
Nov 17 |
Oct 21 |
Oct 14 |
Oct 5 |
Sept 26 |
Sept 12 |
Aug 29 |
July 25 |
July 11 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
32% |
12% |
6% |
4% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
4% |
|
Herman Cain |
26% |
39% |
45% |
38% |
28% |
12% |
8% |
18% |
16% |
|
Mitt Romney |
14% |
19% |
21% |
18% |
17% |
14% |
12% |
17% |
15% |
|
Ron Paul |
8% |
9% |
8% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
13% |
|
Rick Perry |
6% |
8% |
7% |
12% |
18% |
37% |
41% |
- |
- |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
3% |
4% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
|
Rick Santorum |
3% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
|
Michele Bachmann |
2% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
9% |
25% |
28% |
|
Gary Johnson |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
|
Other |
<1% |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
2% |
8% |
3% |
4% |
|
Not sure |
7% |
7% |
5% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
2% |
9% |
10% |
If the Republican primary in your state were held today, and the only candidates were Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
% |
|
Gingrich |
66% |
|
Romney |
24% |
|
I would not vote |
6% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
If the Republican primary in your state were held today, and the only candidates were Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
% |
|
Cain |
59% |
|
Romney |
32% |
|
I would not vote |
5% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
If the Republican primary in your state were held today, and the only candidates were Mitt Romney and Rick Perry for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
% |
|
Romney |
44% |
|
Perry |
39% |
|
I would not vote |
8% |
|
Not sure |
9% |
If the Republican primary in your state were held today, and the only candidates were Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
% |
|
Romney |
61% |
|
Paul |
26% |
|
I would not vote |
5% |
|
Not sure |
8% |
The poll also asked Republican primary voters which candidates they would never vote for and who they thought would be the eventual nominee. Paul had the highest total that would never vote for him at 45%, while Gingrich (14%) and Cain (16%) had the lowest. Romney was in the middle at 28%. Romney is seen as the most likely nominee with 52%, followed by Gingrich at 20%. No one else drew more than 10%.
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obamas job as president?
|
Obama Job Performance |
Nov. 17 |
Oct 31 |
Oct 21 |
Oct 14 |
Oct 5 |
Sept 26 |
Sept 12 |
Sept 5 |
Aug 29 |
Aug 4 |
July 25 |
July 18 |
|
Disapprove |
55% |
57% |
59% |
57% |
59% |
57% |
58% |
61% |
60% |
58% |
54% |
57% |
|
Approve |
44% |
43% |
41% |
43% |
41% |
42% |
42% |
39% |
40% |
41% |
45% |
43% |
|
Not sure |
1 |
1% |
1% |
1% |
<1% |
1% |
1% |
<1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
Do you think President Obama deserves to be re-elected or do you think it is time for someone new?
|
Response |
Nov 17 |
Oct 31 |
Oct 21 |
Oct 14 |
Oct 5 |
Sept 26 |
Sept 12 |
Sept 5 |
Aug 29 |
Aug 4 |
|
Time for someone new |
53% |
54% |
55% |
53% |
54% |
53% |
53% |
57% |
55% |
54% |
|
Obama deserves to be re-elected |
40% |
38% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
37% |
39% |
33% |
35% |
36% |
|
Not sure |
7% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee for President against Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
|
Response |
% |
|
Romney |
44% |
|
Obama |
42% |
|
Someone else |
6% |
|
I would not vote |
2% |
|
Not sure |
6% |
If Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee for President against Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
|
Response |
% |
|
Obama |
47% |
|
Gingrich |
46% |
|
Someone else |
5% |
|
I would not vote |
1% |
|
Not sure |
2% |
If Herman Cain is the Republican nominee for President against Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
|
Response |
% |
|
Obama |
47% |
|
Cain |
44% |
|
Someone else |
6% |
|
I would not vote |
1% |
|
Not sure |
2% |
If Rick Perry is the Republican nominee for President against Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
|
Response |
% |
|
Obama |
48% |
|
Perry |
41% |
|
Someone else |
8% |
|
I would not vote |
2% |
|
Not sure |
2% |
If Ron Paul is the Republican nominee for President against Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
|
Response |
% |
|
Obama |
45% |
|
Paul |
38% |
|
Someone else |
9% |
|
I would not vote |
3% |
|
Not sure |
6% |
Other poll findings include:
- 70% say the nation is on the wrong track and 18% say right track.
- Job approval for Congress is 12%, while approval for each party in Congress is 27% for Democrats and 26% for Republicans.
We also asked all voters about the media coverage of sexual harassment charges against Cain, and 45% say the media had been fair while41% say unfair.
IBOPE Inteligência conducted an online survey of 2,064 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. A sampling of IBOPE Inteligência's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the U.S., was invited to participate. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and education to more accurately reflect the population. IBOPE Inteligência also conducted an online survey of 1,366 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.
For more information, contact the Communications Dept 202-429-0022
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IBOPE Inteligência is a non-partisan, premier global public opinion polling and market research firm that offers timely, accurate results and in-depth analysis and insights. IBOPE Inteligência works with issue experts in a vast array of fields including healthcare, technology, finance, insurance, energy, agriculture, public affairs, and media who offer insightful data analysis and exceptional service to clients in countries throughout the world. IBOPE Inteligência experts analyze data and work with clients to develop and implement new strategies, and offer customized and attractive solutions to challenges our clients face. IBOPE Inteligência was formed in January 2010 following the acquisition of Zogby International by IBOPE Inteligencia of Brazil, a subsidiary of IBOPE Group.
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About IBOPE Group
IBOPE Group is a Brazilian multinational company specializing in media, market and opinion research with offices in the United States and 14 Latin American countries. Since its founding 68 years ago, it has been providing a wide range of information and studies on media, public opinion, voting patterns, consumption habits, branding and market behavior.
For more information on IBOPE Group, please visit www.IBOPE.com.