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Released: October 28, 2003
University of Miami School of Business Administration / Zogby International - Latin America Elite Poll II - Brazil's da Silva most popular; mixed scores for democracy; mostly optimism for economic outlook
In a continuing series of polling in Latin America by the University of Miami School of Business Administration and Zogby International, more than 500 opinion leaders in six Latin American countries expressed their views about the quality of national leadership, democracy and confidence in democratic institutions and the economic outlook. Polling was conducted in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. Interviews were conducted August through October 2003. See methodology statement below. Latin American Leadership Three national leaders earn high marks from Latin American elites: Brazils Luis Lula da Silva, Argentinas Nestor Kirchner and Chiles Ricardo Lagos. President daSilva, who took office in January 2003, scores highest in terms of overall job approval (69%), as a leader moving his nation towards democracy (45%) and as the best model for Latin American leadership (34%). When asked why he is the best model of leadership, elites most often say it is his ability to cooperate with other leaders in Latin America and beyond (40%). In each of these areas, da Silva is top rated among Latin American elites generally, and among Brazilian elites in particular. Argentinas Kirchner earns lower marks than da Silva among Latin elites. While a majority overall (56%) approves of Kirchners job performance, only 35% consider him a leader moving his country towards democracy and only 7% consider him a model of Latin American leadership. Kirchner loses among the elites of his own nation who are much more likely to view Chiles Lagos favorably. Overall, Lagos ties Kirchner in terms of job approval (Lagos 55%, Kirchner 56%). Lagos ties for first place with da Silva as a leader moving his nation towards democracy (45%). However, Lagos lags behind da Silva as the best model of Latin American leadership (Lagos 20%, da Silva 34%). In each of these areas, Lagos wins the confidence of Chilean elites by wide margins. In October 2002 University of Miami School of Business Administration/Zogby International polling, Latin elites overwhelmingly chose Mexicos President Vincente Fox as the leader with the most positive effect on democracy (77%) and as the best model for leadership on the continent (31%). This year, only 34% say he has made good progress in moving his country towards democracy and just 6% choose Fox as the ideal model of leadership in Latin America. Mexican elites, themselves, are much more likely to approve of the performance of Brazilian impresario da Silva (78%) than their own Fox (38%). In terms of progress in moving their country towards democracy, Mexican elites rate Fox on par with Fidel Castro (27% each). Evaluating Democracy and Democratic Institutions Latin elites were asked to rate their satisfaction with democracy in their country. Among the nations, Brazilian elites (71%) and Chilean elites (69%) are most satisfied with democracy in their nations. Fewer than half of the elites in other nations say they are satisfied, including: Argentina (49%), Colombia (42%), Mexico (38%) and Venezuela (11%). When asked to rate their confidence in public institutions, Latin elites express the highest levels of confidence in the church, armed forces and media. Core governance institutions, including police forces, judicial branches and national congresses, engender mediocre levels of confidence. Partisan politics fare worst, with over half expressing no confidence in political parties (51%). Elites in Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela express the lowest levels of confidence in public institutions across the board. Lack of confidence in political parties is keenest among Mexican (61%) and Colombian elites (60%), while Venezuelan elites have lost faith in their national congress (70%) and judiciary (63%). Elites in every Latin American nation with the notable exception of Mexicoare more likely to say that democracy is more important than economic development. In Mexico, 46% say democracy is more important, while 46% say economic development is more important. Elites from Chile (86%), Argentina (60%) and Brazil (61%) are most likely to have a positive outlook on the economy for the next 12 months. Argentineans (74%) and Chileans (69%) are also most likely to say the economy has improved, while Brazilians are divided (37% better, 31% same, 32% worse). The elites of Venezuela and Mexico, whose leaders were rated least favorably, also offer the most pessimistic economic outlook. Half of Mexicos elites (49%) say the economy has deteriorated over the past 12 months, compared to 12% who say conditions have improved. Over the next 12 months, 41% of Mexican elites predict no change to the economy, while one third (34%) expect further deterioration. In Venezuela, there is deeper pessimism, with 84% saying economic conditions have deteriorated and three in five (60%) expect continued deterioration. UMs School of Business is privileged to continue supporting the Latin America Elite Poll II. With our location as the gateway to the Americas and our outstanding faculty at the School, we have the unique opportunity to provide Latin American opinion leaders with information and quality programs which meet their needs for advanced training and education, said Paul Sugrue, Dean of the University of Miami's School of Business. This is the kind of tracking information thats critical for policymakers, investment bankers, and academics, noted pollster John Zogby. Opinion leader data goes a long way in terms of determining the outlook for the future. It becomes a tremendous aid in risk management. Methodology and Sample Characteristics Zogby International, on behalf of the University of Miami School of Business Administration, interviewed 537 elites in face-to-face meetings between August 20 and October 2, 2003. Most of these interviews were conducted, by appointment, at the respondents work office. A handful of interviewees requested an interview by telephone. Interviews were conducted in six Latin American countries: Argentina (80), Brazil (103), Chile (80), Colombia (87), Mexico (107), and Venezuela (80). The sample was selected using a base list of elites. A near-equal portion (approximately 25%) of each of the following sectors was targeted: government, media, academia, and business. For the purposes of this survey, elites are defined as high/middle-high income respondents with special knowledge of their area of interest. Since all interviewees lived or worked in urban areas, all interviews were conducted in the main cities in each of the six countries. Trained specialists who were nationals in the country they surveyed conducted all interviews. All interviews were conducted in Spanish, except for those done in Brazil, where interviews were conducted in Portuguese. On average, one in every four people contacted agreed to participate in the survey. Interest in participating was high. The reason most often given for not participating in a survey was a lack of time. | University of Miami Crosstabs
- How do you think the general economic situation in your country has changed over the last 12 months?
- How do you think the general economic situation in your country will develop over the next 12 months?
- Overall would you say that you are satisfied with the way democracy works in your country?
- 5. In order to increase government income, which group should pay higher taxes?
- Which would you say is more important, democracy or economic development?
- Would you ever support an authoritarian government in your country?
- How would you rate President George W. Bush's job performance concerning Latin America?
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Each question will include cross tabulations for the following subgroups:
First Age Group
Breakdown | Second Age Group
Breakdown | Country
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Venezuela | Were you born in present country? | | Gender | Education
| Sector
Government, Academics, Media, Business |
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