Audio of John Zogby Commentary Available at:
http://interactive.zogby.com/mediaclips
Two leftwing candidates splitting the support of those opposed to continued conservative rule, new University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International poll shows
Conservative PAN candidate Felipe Calderon has taken the lead in the race for President of Mexico on the strength of a good showing in a recent televised debate and solid approval numbers for incumbent President Vicente Fox, who is also from the PAN political party.
A new University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International poll shows that two popular candidates, representing other, more leftleaning political parties, are splitting the antiincumbent party vote that may result in Calderons election on July 2. Those other candidates include PRI presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo Pinitado, who represents the party that had held power in Mexico for seven decades before Foxs victory in 2000. Calderon captured the support of 34% in the poll, compared to 22% for Madrazo and 29% for PRD presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Twelve percent said they had not yet decided for whom to vote. When undecided likely voters are removed from the equation, Calderons edge increases to 38%, while Obrador wins 33% and Madrazo garners 25%.
Obrador was leading earlier in the race, but decided to skip a televised debate in late March. Calderons performance in that debate was strong enough to propel him past Obrador and into the lead.
Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, called the latest developments in the Mexican contest a pretty dramatic turn of events.
He said a substantial percentage of the electorate said they were doing better now financially than six years ago, and that three out of five of those voters are going for incumbent party candidate Calderon. Thats very good, and that is solid for him, Zogby said. Whats happening is that 52% said it is time for a new brand of leadership and 54% said either that the nation is headed in the wrong direction or that they were unsure, so there is an appetite for change, but the two main change candidates are splitting the change vote.
Mexicans see Calderon as the best candidate to handle most issues facing the nation. Asked specifically about 11 issues, poll respondents said Calderon is bestsuited to handle nine of them. He is seen by more people to be the best candidate to improve the quality of Mexican life, fight corruption, improve education and the countrys health care system, and to battle illegal drug cartels. He is also seen as the best able to generate new jobs in Mexico and opportunities for women.
Which candidate is best on the key issues facing Mexico:
| | | | | |
| Improving Mexican life | | | | |
| Combating poverty | | | | |
| Fighting corruption | | | | |
| Improving education | | | | |
| Handling drug cartels | | | | |
| Improving health care | | | | |
| Improving public transportation | | | | |
| Generating new jobs | | | | |
| Improving opportunity for women | | | | |
| Building a better democracy | | | | |
| Negotiating w/ foreign nations | | | | |
Mexicans identified the economy as the top issue in the race for president. Battling the illegal drug trade and rooting out corruption in government are also top concerns, the poll shows. Mexicans are somewhat optimistic a strong plurality said they expect to be better off six years from now. For every one person who worries they will be worse off, five say they expect their financial situation to improve over the next six years.
The School of Communication here at the University of Miami has established several programs with a focus on Latin America, said Dean Sam L Grogg. We view our collaboration with Zogby International on this research as an extension of the important work of our faculty to address the profound role that the Southern Hemisphere will play in the global future.
The University of Miami School of Communications/Zogby International poll was conducted May 69, 2006, included facetoface interviews with 999 respondents, and carries a margin of error of +/ 3.2 percentage points.
The University of Miami is the largest private research institution in the southeastern United States. The University's mission is to provide quality education, attract and retain outstanding students, support the faculty and their research, and build an endowment for University initiatives. The school website is: www.miami.edu
Back to All News Releases
