Incumbent first–term Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has held onto almost all of a commanding lead over two challengers as the election nears, a new University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International survey shows.
He leads Gerald Alckmin, governor of São Paulo State, Brazil’s largest and wealthiest, and leftist firebrand Heloisa Helena by wide margins. Lula da Silva, a leftist founder of the ruling Workers Party (PT), enjoys support from 51% of likely voters, compared to 22% for Alckmin, who represents the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB), and 9% for Helena, who was thrown out of the PT and now represents the PSOL Party.
Lula da Silva won 53% support in a survey conducted just over a month ago.
This latest survey was conducted Sept. 2-13, 2006, and included 923 likely voters. The margin of error is +/– 3.3 percentage points. The election is October 29, 2006.
Lula da Silva enjoys wide support from the electorate – 56% said they think he deserves to be re-elected, while 40% said it is time for someone new to lead Brazil. In addition, a majority (53%) said they think the nation is on the right track, compared to 40% who said they think things are headed in the wrong direction.
Who Do Brazilians Think Will Win?
Regardless of whether you are going to vote, who do you think will win the election and become President of Brazil?
| | | | | | | | |
| Lula da Silva | | | | | | | |
| Alckmin | | | | | | | |
| Helena | | | | | | | |
Lula da Silva is favored by likely voters in almost every demographic group. Men are slightly more likely to support him than women, but he wins both demographic groups by wide margins. The higher the education level of the respondent, the less likely they are to support Lula da Silva, but he trails Alckmin only among those who have earned university degrees.
Pollster John Zogby: President Lula continues to show remarkable political strength after a stunning turn-around. His support appears very stable, and with just over a month until Election Day, it looks like those trying to unseat him face a very difficult task. If he wins, this would represent a major reversal of fortune for a man who was on the ropes just a year ago.
For a methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.cfm?ID=1140
The University of Miami is the largest private research institution in the southeastern United States. The University's mission is to provide quality education, attract and retain outstanding students, support the faculty and their research, and build an endowment for University initiatives. The school website is: www.miami.edu
Attention, Media: In citation of this survey, please credit both the University of Miami School of Communication and Zogby International.
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