Daniel Ortega Saavedra, the former leftist Nicaraguan president who ruled one of Central America’s poorest nations during the Reagan administration, has retained his substantial lead over conservative banker Eduardo Montealegre and others as the election campaign enters its final two weeks, a new University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International poll shows.
He leads a multicandidate field with 35% support, far ahead of Montealegre, who wins 20% backing. In third place is former Vice President José Rizo Castellón with 16% support. A fourth candidate, Edmundo Jarquín of the Movement to Restore Sandinismo party (MRS), garners 14% support.
The intensity of Ortegas support is stronger than any other competitor, the survey shows 95% said they strongly support him, compared to 87% who said the same about their support of Castellón, and 81% of the backers of Montealegre.
Ortega, who has failed in subsequent attempts to regain power since losing it in 1990, represents the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), while the U.S.educated Montealegre is a member of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance party (ALNPC). Castellón represents the governing Constitution Liberal Party (PLC). Fourteen percent said they had not yet made up their minds. The election is Nov. 5.
In an earlier University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International poll of 800 likely voters, conducted in early September, Ortega held a large lead, winning 34% support, compared to 19% for Montealegre. Nearly onefourth of the electorate was undecided in the earlier poll.
That survey also showed the Nicaraguan electorate to be badly discouraged about the direction in which their country was headed 68% said they felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, while 18% said they felt their nation was on the right track.
Helping Ortega is public support for his political party. The survey shows that a plurality of Nicaraguans (41%) sympathize most with his party, while 24% said they most sympathize with Castellón’s PLC party. However, 61% said they had little or no confidence in their nation’s political parties.
In the earlier poll, the most important issues for Nicaraguans are economic ones 34% said creating more jobs is the most important issue facing the nation, while 32% said a related concern poverty is the most pressing concern.
Ortega lost his grip on power in the 1990 presidential election, which was won by Violeta Barrios de Chamorro. Presidential competitor Jarquín of the MRS is actually married to the daughter of former President Chamorro.
This second University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International poll of likely voters in Nicaragua is the latest in a series of political polls conducted this year in Latin America. Earlier surveys closely tracked the Mexican election and identified that conservative Felipe Calderon Hinojosa would win in a very close race, and that President Uribe of Columbia held a large lead in his re–election bid.
The University of Miami is the largest private research institution in the southeastern United States. The University's mission is to provide quality education, attract and retain outstanding students, support the faculty and their research, and build an endowment for University initiatives. The school website is: www.miami.edu
For a detailed methodological statement, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.cfm?ID=1145
