A new outlook has taken hold of Latin Americas elite, which is now decidedly bullish, reports Latin America Regional Editor Joseph Contreras in Newsweek Internationals Latin America edition January 15 cover story. Thats the finding of a new Zogby International poll published exclusively by Newsweek and cosponsored by the University of Miamis School of Communications, and it represents a sea change in perspective. In the survey of 603 prominent Latin Americansleading politicians, government officials, academics and journaliststhe share who describe the current economy in their own countries as good or excellent has risen from 7 percent to 43 percent since a similar Zogby poll in 2002. There is strong optimism about the future: 53 percent say Latin America is on the right track and 81 percent expect their national economy to improve over the next two years.
The elite also showed increasing confidence in Latin Americas ability to compete in international markets. A solid majority of respondents placed high importance on trade deals with every region of the world, supporting even the controversial Free Trade of the Americas Agreement promoted by the United States. Fifty-nine percent place high importance on trade with the United States; 80 percent or more place high importance on trade with Europe, China and Arab nations. (The share who place high importance on Arab trade jumped from 32 percent in a 2005 University of Miami School of Communications/Zogby poll to 81 percent this year.) The national elites were also virtually unanimous in their view of how the United States has handled relations with Latin America: 86 percent, including 81 percent who identify themselves as politically right of center, gave the Bush administration a fair or poor grade.
Of the seven countries targeted in the Zogby International poll at least fourArgentina, Chile, Peru and Venezuelaare expected to surpass the regional average in growth, as forecast by the World Bank. And those nations are home to some of the most sanguine elites: among those surveyed, Argentines are most positive (by a 67 percent majority) about current conditions in their own economy, and Peruvians are most confident about the direction of their economy over the next two years (95 percent). Venezuelans, despite the controversy swirling around their president, Hugo Chávez, are also highly optimistic about the two-year horizon (85 percent).
The outlook is not uniformly buoyant. The pessimistic outlier is Mexico. An 83 percent majority of Mexican respondents described economic conditions as fair or poor, and nearly one in three predicted a downturn for the national economy over the next two years. University of Miami School of Communications/Zogby polls in 2002 and 2005 also uncovered a deep malaise in Mexico. Brazil, by contrast, is the most surprisingly hopeful nation in the poll. The World Bank expects Brazil to post one of the regions lowest growth rates in 2006, less than 3 percent, with only a modest improvement this year, but 89 percent of Brazilian respondents see better times ahead.
Fifty-four percent of Chilean elites say Latin America is on the wrong track, the only pessimistic majority in the survey. Peru and Brazil occupy ideological extremes in the Latin elite (at least as defined by this poll): 37.5 percent of Peruvian respondents identify themselves as right of center, and 49 percent of Brazilians identify themselves as left of center. Peruvian respondents gave the highest rating (79 percent) to the importance of trade with the United States, while 57 percent of the Brazilians surveyed felt the same way. Nearly half the Venezuelan respondents also identified themselves as left of center, and they voiced the greatest support for trade within Latin America.
This Zogby International poll has a margin of error of 4 percent.
(Read entire cover story at www.Newsweek.com)
Andrea Faville
Senior Publicist
Newsweek
T: 212-445-4859
C: 917-287-5242
