As Sunday’s presidential vote in France looms, a new Zogby International poll finds French Muslims closely mirroring the views of their closely-divided countrymen, but ready to back Socialist Ségolène Royal in a runoff.
The Zogby poll of French Muslims found center-right UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy narrowly edging Royal, 29% to 28%, with centrist UDF candidate François Bayrou at 23%. Far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front trails by a wide margin at 6%. This closely aligns with the overall opinions of the French electorate in recent national polls, although the ultra-nationalist Le Pen fares better among the general population than among Muslims.
Much like the overall French electorate, a high percentage of Muslim votershere, 14%said they were undecided heading into the final days of the campaign. And, despite his narrow lead among Muslims in the first ballot, Sarkozy is polling near his ceiling of support. Should he and Royal head to a runoff, as many pundits are suggesting, his support would only climb to 33% while Royals would surge to 46% in a second round of the French presidential contest.
With immigrants estimated as comprising one-tenth of the French population, and a significant number of them from Muslim countries, most notably Algeria and Morocco, Muslims can comprise a large portion of the electorate on Sunday. The Zogby survey of Muslim adults eligible to vote in the presidential contest found 87% saying they were very likely to cast ballots in the election, while fewer than 1% said they were not likely to vote.
With Muslim voters holding a somewhat gloomy outlook on their nations direction, the key to winning the support of this group may be a candidates approach to economic issues. A full 45% of French Muslims in the poll identified either the economy or unemployment as top issues facing the Fifth Republic as the election approaches, while another 10% said affordable housing was the top issue facing France. Meanwhile, 54% of those polled said the nation was heading in the wrong direction.
On this question, Sarkozy appears to come out ahead, with 40% of Muslims polled saying he was the candidate best able to address the issue of reducing unemployment, even as more French Muslims said Royal would be more effective at improving the condition of French life than Sarkozy.
The Candidates on the Issues
| Best candidate to handle
| Sarkozy | Royal | Bayrou | Le Pen |
| Improving the condition of French life | 31% | 37% | 17% | 3% |
| Combating poverty | 31% | 34% | 16% | 4% |
| Combating racism/discrimination | 37% | 33% | 13% | 5% |
| Improving education | 31% | 30% | 22% | 4% |
| Reducing crime | 45% | 26% | 11% | 4% |
| Improving the health system | 33% | 37% | 12% | 4% |
| Reducing unemployment | 40% | 26% | 15% | 3% |
| Increasing opportunities for women | 31% | 50% | 7% | 3% |
| Negotiating with foreign nations | 34% | 30% | 17% | 4% |
The poll finds Muslims divided over which candidate would have the greatest impact on a wide variety of issues, although frontrunners Sarkozy and Royal clearly dominate Bayrou and Le Pen on nearly every issue. This polling pre-dates a Thursday editorial by the influential French newspaper Le Monde that urged voters to support either Sarkozy or Royal because the two major-party candidates offered the most clear-cut programs for France .
Intriguingly, Royal, the woman chosen as the Socialists standard-bearer, performs more favorably among Muslim men than women, while Bayrou performs much more strongly versus his major-party counterparts among Muslim women.
| | All Muslims | Muslim Men | Muslim Women |
| Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) | 29% | 30% | 28% |
| Ségolène Royal (PS) | 28% | 30% | 27% |
| François Bayrou (UDF) | 23% | 19% | 26% |
| Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) | 6% | 5% | 6% |
The surveys findings come amid a shifting French public attitude toward the issue of immigration following violent street clashes and riots in recent years in the banlieues, the often low-income suburban outskirts of Paris and other cities where many recent immigrants, including large concentrations of Muslims, live. While anti-immigration talk was once Le Pens strong suit, it has become increasingly mainstream in this election cycle, with Sarkozy vowing to create a Ministry of Immigration and National Identity.
Chirac, UMP Rated Negatively
One political figure that that performs poorly with French Muslims is the sitting president, Jacques Chirac. Chirac, who has long been at odds with the present U.S. administration, despite offering his own brand of conservative politics at home, gets just a 37% job approval rating in the poll. Chiracs party, the UMP, or Union for a Popular Movement, fares even worse, with just 22% of Muslims saying the party deserves reelectionfar fewer than are backing its candidate, Sarkozy. Respondents to the poll are also less likely to identify with the UMP (29%) than either the Socialists (34%) or the Union for French Democracy (UDF), Bayrous movement, which nets 31%.
Of all the candidates, Royal enjoys the highest personal favorability rating, with 66% of Muslims holding a favorable view of the Socialist. Sixty percent say the same about Sarkozy, while 57% look favorably on Bayrou. Just 20% have a favorable outlook on the long anti-immigrant Le Pen. And while the poll finds 6% of Muslims backing the French hardliner, this support may be weaker than it appears as socioeconomic factors are likely to undermine this group’s participating, including the fact that the polling data suggests this group includes an outsized representation among those whose education only includes French primary schools.
Royal Would Best Sarkozy in RunoffAt Least Among Muslims
As noted earlier, Royal’s support would surge in a head-to-head contest against frontrunner Sarkozy. In a head-to-head match-up, such as a possible May 6 runoff, Royal’s support surges to 46% among Muslims, while Sarkozy’s support only ticks up a few points, to 33%, with 14% undecided. In a runoff between Royal and Bayrou, meanwhile, it is the centrist who surges, with 50% backing him against Socialist Royal, who would only get 33%. And in a runoff between Bayrou and Sarkozy, Sarkozy would hold a tenuous 43% to 41% lead.
Pollster John Zogby: I have learned in polling all over the world that religious identity has less to do with voting choices than is often believed. The results of this survey bear that out.
“This election is as close among Muslims as among all voters, although in the final race, if it were Royal versus Sarkozy, she would win handsomely among Muslims. But you’ve got to ask the question, why isn’t Royal doing as well in the first round? Is it that she’s a woman, or is it that Bayrou is hurting her, or is it that Muslim voters are not in tune with socialism? Despite that, they clearly back her over Sarkozy. And Royal gets a good favorability rating, although intriguingly, Muslims aren’t quite ready to declare their support for her.
“It’s not surprising that the top issue is the economy and unemployment. And a majority don’t think the country is heading in the right direction, and are not likely to support Chirac, or his party.”
The poll of 417 French Muslims eligible to vote in Sundays election was conducted between April 1 and April 18 2007, and carries a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. It has been weighted to more accurately reflect the age and gender of the French Muslim population.
Zogby International is one of the best-known names in polling worldwide, and has continued to distinguish itself in polling hard-to-reach groups, including Muslims in the United States , Europe, and the entire Muslim World, as well as countries like Iran and Iraq , whose populations are often difficult to effectively sample. Headquartered in Utica , New York , the firm is headed by pollster John Zogby, who has accurately forecast dozens of national contests, including three U.S. presidential elections, political contests in Europe, Canada , Quebec , the Middle East, and Latin America .
