Recognized around the world as "the one who got it right" by media and clients alike, unbiased accuracy and timely, readable results make Zogby International the first choice for your political poll. Zogby International's focus on "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters" has proven to be the most accurate polling method time and time again in polls involving politics and public policy. Zogby tracking polls foreshadowed
razor-thin Presidential outcome
As the nation watches the unfolding of the closest presidential race in history, tracking polls conducted by Zogby International in the last few weeks foretold a tightening of the race. We were the first to observe the gap closing significantly between Governor George W. Bush and Vice-President Al Gore in the waning hours of the election.
Zogby International noted the division in the electorate nationwide and in several key states. This was not an easy election for any polling company to predict because it was agonizingly close. In 1996, we established a benchmark for accurate election polling, and we are proud that the methods we employed then, and now, proved to be just as reliable in this historic election.
As Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal observed, "We are all so busy looking at Florida and wondering how it will play out that we have paid little attention to what appears to have been a stunning Bush collapse in the final week of the campaign. Pollster John Zogby was right it was in the final days, and particularly the last weekend, that Mr. Bush's numbers went down and Mr. Gore surged."
B. Drummond Ayres Jr. of the New York Times added, "Since the margin of sampling error for the six polls was plus or minus two to three percentage points, [the pollsters] could all claim to be generally on target. What is more, most could boastespecially, Zogbyand CBS Newsthat they picked up a definite increase in support for Mr. Gore in the final 24 hours or so of the campaign."
Will Lester, of the Associated Press concurred, "Two national polls, by CBS News and New York Pollster John Zogby, put Gore in a narrow lead for the popular votes, which is exactly how the election turned out."
Steve Schultz, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "The national pre-election honors went to Zogby International, Harris and CBS, whose results most closely mirrored the actual vote."
D.F. Oliveria, The Spokesman-Review, "Zogby goes back to the head of the polling class."
John G. Craig Jr., editor Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "The polls were right
.In each instance, the actual vote was almost a perfect match for the (Zogby) poll-projected total. The exception was Florida, where the (Zogby) tracking data had Gore ahead by 3 percentage points. But even this was within the margin of error."
Election 2000 Wrap-up
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll Zogby International
Final Results (Congressional) | Actual Election
Results | Zogby
Spread | Actual
Spread | Zogby
Margin
of
Error | Projected
Winner | Actual
Winner |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Arkansas 04 (R) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ross(D) 44
Dickey(R) 47 | Ross(D) 51
Dickey(R) 49 | 3 | 2 | 5.4 | Dickey(R) | Ross(D) |
| California 15 (R) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Honda(D) 51
Cuneen(R) 40 | Honda(D) 55
Cuneen(R) 42 | 11 | 13 | 5.4 | Honda(D) | Honda(D) |
| California 36 (R) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Harman(D) 40
Kuykendall(R) 45 | Harman(D) 49
Kuykendall(R) 47 | 5 | 2 | 5.4 | Kuykendall(R) | Undeclared |
| Florida 08 (D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chapin(D) 38
Keller(R) 50 | Chapin(D) 49
Keller(R) 51 | 12 | 2 | 5.4 | Keller(R) | Keller(R) |
| Kansas 03 (D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Moore(D) 49
Kline(R) 40 | Moore(D) 51
Kline(R) 47 | 9 | 4 | 5.4 | Moore(D) | Moore(D) |
| Michigan 08(D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Byrum(D) 39
Rogers(R) 45 | Byrum(D) 49
Rogers(R) 49 | 6 | 0 | 5.4 | Rogers(R) | Rogers(R) |
| Missouri 06 (D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Danner(D) 42
Graves(R) 45 | Danner(D) 47
Graves(R) 51 | 3 | 4 | 5.4 | Graves(R) | Graves(R) |
| New Jersey 12 (D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Holt(D) 47
Zimmer(R) 37 | Holt(D) 49
Zimmer(R) 49 | 10 | 0 | 5.4 | Holt(D) | Undeclared |
| Oklahoma 02 (R) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carson(D) 44
Ewing(R) 39 | Carson(D) 55
Ewing(R) 42 | 5 | 13 | 5.4 | Carson(D) | Carson(D) |
| Pennsylvania 10 (R) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Casey(D) 40
Sherwood(R) 46 | Casey(D) 47
Sherwood(R) 53 | 6 | 4 | 5.4 | Sherwood (R) | Sherwood(R) |
| Zogby International
Final Results | Actual Election
Results | Zogby
Spread | Actual
Spread | Zogby
Margin of
Error | Projected
Winner | Actual
Winner |
Reuters/MSNBC/
Zogby National
Tracking | Gore 48
Bush 46
Nader 5 | Gore 49
Bush 48
Nader 3 | 2 | 1 | 3.0 | Gore | Gore |
|
California |
| Presidential | Gore 51
Bush 43
Nader 8 | Gore 54
Bush 42
Nader 4 | 8 | 12 | 4.0 | Gore | Gore |
Florida |
| Presidential | | Gore 49
Bush 49
Nader 2 | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | Gore | Undec. |
| Senate | Nelson 49
McCollum 47 | Nelson 52
McCollum 47 | 2 | 5 | 4.0 | Nelson | Nelson |
| Illinois |
| Presidential | Gore 50
Bush 43
Nader 7 | Gore 55
Bush 43
Nader 2 | 7 | 12 | 4.0 | Gore | Gore |
| Michigan |
| Presidential | Gore 51
Bush 45
Nader 4 | Gore 51
Bush 47
Nader 2 | 6 | 4 | 4.0 | Gore | Gore |
| Senate | Stabenow 51
Abraham 47 | Stabenow 50
Abraham 49 | 4 | 1 | 4.0 | Stab. | Stab. |
Missouri |
| Presidential | Gore 47
Bush 48
Nader 3 | Gore 47
Bush 50
Nader 2 | 1 | 3 | 4.0 | Bush | Bush |
| Senate | Carnahan 49
Ashcroft 49 | Carnahan 51
Ashcroft 49 | 0 | 2 | 4.0 | Tie | Carn. |
| New York |
| Presidential | Gore 56
Bush 37
Nader 6 | Gore 60
Bush 35
Nader 4 | 19 | 25 | 3.8 | Gore | Gore |
| Senate | Clinton 51
Lazio 48 | Clinton 56
Lazio 44 | 3 | 12 | 3.8 | Clinton | Clinton |
| Ohio |
| Presidential | Gore 45
Bush 48
Nader 5 | Gore 46
Bush 50
Nader 3 | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | Bush | Bush |
| Senate | Celeste 31
DeWine 56 | Celeste 36
DeWine 61 | 25 | 25 | 4.0 | DeWine | DeWine |
Pennsylvania |
| Presidential | Gore 51
Bush 42
Nader 5 | Gore 51
Bush 47
Nader 2 | 9 | 4 | 4.0 | Gore | Gore |
| Senate | Klink 34
Santorum 52 | Klink 46
Santorum 53 | 18 | 7 | 4.0 | Sant. | Sant. |
| Tennessee |
| Presidential | Gore 45
Bush 52
Nader 2 | Gore 48
Bush 51
Nader 1 | 7 | 3 | 4.5 | Bush | Bush |
| Senate | Clark 28
Frist 62 | Clark 33
Frist 66 | 34 | 33 | 4.5 | Frist | Frist |
| Washington |
| Presidential | Gore 50
Bush 43
Nader 5 | Gore 50
Bush 45
Nader 4 | 7 | 5 | 4.5 | Gore | Gore |
| Senate | Cantwell 52
Gorton 47 | Cantwell 49
Gorton 49 | 5 | 0 | 4.5 | Cant. | Undec. |
| Wisconsin |
| Presidential | Gore 46
Bush 46
Nader 6 | Gore 48
Bush 48
Nader 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | Tie | Gore |
| Senate | Kohl 61
Gillespie 32 | Kohl 62
Gillespie 38 | 29 | 24 | 4.5 | Kohl | Kohl |
Zogby International's outstanding record of
accuracy includes, these high profile campaigns:
Final Poll Projections, USA Today
November 7, 1996
| Pollster | Clinton | Dole | Perot | Margin |
CBS/NY Times | 53% | 35% | 9% | 18% |
Pew Research | 49% | 36% | 8% | 13% |
ABC News | 51% | 39% | 7% | 12% |
Harris | 51% | 39% | 9% | 12% |
NBC/Wall Street | 49% | 37% | 9% | 12% |
USA Today | 52% | 41% | 7% | 11% |
CNN/Gallup | 52% | 41% | 7% | 11% |
Hotline | 45% | 36% | 8% | 9% |
| Reuters/Zogby | 49% | 41% | 8% | 8% |
| ACTUAL | 49% | 41% | 8% | 8% |
- In 1994, Zogby International was the only pollster in the nation to call the New York gubernatorial race
- In 1996, Zogby International was the only pollster to call the presidential election to the exact percentage point.
- In 1997, Zogby International was the only pollster to predict the razor-thin Whitman victory in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.
- Zogby International's tracking polls were within two percentage points of the actual vote in the Canadian 1997 elections.
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